Assessing the impact of one million COVID-19 deaths in America: economic and life expectancy losses.

Between February 2020 and May 2022, one million Americans have died of COVID-19. To determine the contribution of those deaths to all-cause mortality in terms of life expectancy reductions and the resulting economic welfare losses, we calculated their combined impact on national income growth and the added value of lives lost. We estimated that US life expectancy at birth dropped by 3.08 years due to the million COVID-19 deaths. Economic welfare losses estimated in terms of national income growth supplemented by the value of lives lost, was in the order of US$3.57 trillion. US$2.20 trillion of these losses were in in the non-Hispanic White population (56.50%), US$698.24 billion (19.54%) in the Hispanic population, and US$579.93 billion (16.23%) in the non-Hispanic Black population. The scale of life expectancy and welfare losses underscores the pressing need to invest in health in the US to prevent further economic shocks from future pandemic threats.

Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: a full-income analysis.

BACKGROUND: The tuberculosis targets for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a 90% reduction in tuberculosis deaths by 2030, compared with 2015, but meeting this target now seems highly improbable. To assess the economic impact of not meeting the target until 2045, we estimated full-income losses in 120 countries, including those due to excess deaths resulting from COVID-19-related disruptions to tuberculosis services, for the period 2020-50. METHODS: Annual mortality risk changes at each age in each year from 2020 to 2050 were estimated for 120 countries. This risk change was then converted to full-income risk by calculating a population-level mortality risk change and multiplying it by the value of a statistical life-year in each country and year. As a comparator, we assumed that current rates of tuberculosis continue to decline through the period of analysis. We calculated the full-income losses, and mean life expectancy losses per person, at birth and at age 35 years, under scenarios in which the SDG targets are met in 2030 and in 2045. We defined the cost of inaction as the difference in full-income losses and tuberculosis mortality between these two scenarios. FINDINGS: From 2020 to 2050, based on the current annual decrease in tuberculosis deaths of 2%, 31·8 million tuberculosis deaths (95% uncertainty interval 25·2 million-39·5 million) are estimated to occur, corresponding to an economic loss of US$17·5 trillion (14·9 trillion-20·4 trillion). If the SDG tuberculosis mortality target is met in 2030, 23·8 million tuberculosis deaths (18·9 million-29·5 million) and $13·1 trillion (11·2 trillion-15·3 trillion) in economic losses can be avoided. If the target is met in 2045, 18·1 million tuberculosis deaths (14·3 million-22·4 million) and $10·2 trillion (8·7 trillion-11·8 trillion) can be avoided. The cost of inaction of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target until 2045 (vs 2030) is, therefore, 5·7 million tuberculosis deaths (5·1 million-8·1 million) and $3·0 trillion (2·5 trillion-3·5 trillion) in economic losses. COVID-19-related disruptions add $290·3 billion (260·2 billion-570·1 billion) to this cost. INTERPRETATION: Failure to achieve the SDG tuberculosis mortality target by 2030 will lead to profound economic and health losses. The effects of delay will be greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Affected countries, donor nations, and the private sector should redouble efforts to finance tuberculosis programmes and research because the economic dividend of such strategies is likely to be substantial. FUNDING: None.

Scaling up public mental health care in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from infectious disease.

INTRODUCTION: Models estimate that the disability burden from mental disorders in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will more than double in the next 40 years. Similar to HIV, mental disorders are stigmatized in many SSA settings and addressing them requires community engagement and long-term treatment. Yet, in contrast to HIV, the public mental healthcare cascade has not been sustained, despite robust data on scalable strategies. We draw on findings from our International AIDS Society (IAS) 2020 virtual workshop and make recommendations for next steps in the scale up of the SSA public mental healthcare continuum. DISCUSSION: Early HIV surveillance and care cascade targets are discussed as important strategies for HIV response in SSA that should be adopted for mental health. Advocacy, including engagement with civil society, and targeted economic arguments to policymakers, are reviewed in the context of HIV success in SSA. Parallel opportunities for mental disorders are identified. Learning from HIV, communication of strategies that advance mental health care needs in SSA must be prioritized for broad global audiences. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is setting off a colossal escalation of global mental health care needs, well-publicized across scientific, media, policymaker, and civil society domains. The pandemic highlights disparities in healthcare access and reinvigorates the push for universal coverage. Learning from HIV strategies, we must seize this historical moment to improve the public mental health care cascade in SSA and capitalize on the powerful alliances ready to be forged. As noted by Ambassador Goosby in our AIDS 2020 workshop, 'The time is now'.

Integrating Social Determinants in Decision-Making Processes for Health: Insights from Conceptual Frameworks-the 3-D Commission.

The inclusion of social determinants of health offers a more comprehensive lens to fully appreciate and effectively address health. However, decision-makers across sectors still struggle to appropriately recognise and act upon these determinants, as illustrated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, improving the health of populations remains challenging. This paper seeks to draw insights from the literature to better understand decision-making processes affecting health and the potential to integrate data on social determinants. We summarised commonly cited conceptual approaches across all stages of the policy process, from agenda-setting to evaluation. Nine conceptual approaches were identified, including two frameworks, two models and five theories. From across the selected literature, it became clear that the context, the actors and the type of the health issue are critical variables in decision-making for health, a process that by nature is a dynamic and adaptable one. The majority of these conceptual approaches implicitly suggest a possible role for data on social determinants of health in decision-making. We suggest two main avenues to make the link more explicit: the use of data in giving health problems the appropriate visibility and credibility they require and the use of social determinants of health as a broader framing to more effectively attract the attention of a diverse group of decision-makers with the power to allocate resources. Social determinants of health present opportunities for decision-making, which can target modifiable factors influencing health-i.e. interventions to improve or reduce risks to population health. Future work is needed to build on this review and propose an improved, people-centred and evidence-informed decision-making tool that strongly and explicitly integrates data on social determinants of health.

COVID-19 and global equity for health: The good, the bad, and the wicked.

Elvin Geng and co-authors discuss monitoring and achieving equity in provision of vaccines for COVID-19.

Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in lowering the viral inoculum to reduce susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and potentially disease severity.

Adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been highly variable across settings, particularly in the USA. In this Personal View, we review data supporting the importance of the viral inoculum (the dose of viral particles from an infected source over time) in increasing the probability of infection in respiratory, gastrointestinal, and sexually transmitted viral infections in humans. We also review the available evidence linking the relationship of the viral inoculum to disease severity. Non-pharmaceutical interventions might reduce the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing the viral inoculum when there is exposure to an infectious source. Data from physical sciences research suggest that masks protect the wearer by filtering virus from external sources, and others by reducing expulsion of virus by the wearer. Social distancing, handwashing, and improved ventilation also reduce the exposure amount of viral particles from an infectious source. Maintaining and increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions can help to quell SARS-CoV-2 as we enter the second year of the pandemic. Finally, we argue that even as safe and effective vaccines are being rolled out, non-pharmaceutical interventions will continue to play an essential role in suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission until equitable and widespread vaccine administration has been completed.

How will COVID-19 transform global health post-pandemic? Defining research and investment opportunities and priorities.

Michael Reid and co-authors introduce a Collection on the global health in the post-COVID-19 era.

Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer.

Although the benefit of population-level public facial masking to protect others during the COVID-19 pandemic has received a great deal of attention, we discuss for one of the first times the hypothesis that universal masking reduces the "inoculum" or dose of the virus for the mask-wearer, leading to more mild and asymptomatic infection manifestations. Masks, depending on type, filter out the majority of viral particles, but not all. We first discuss the near-century-old literature around the viral inoculum and severity of disease (conceptualized as the LD50 or lethal dose of the virus). We include examples of rising rates of asymptomatic infection with population-level masking, including in closed settings (e.g., cruise ships) with and without universal masking. Asymptomatic infections may be harmful for spread but could actually be beneficial if they lead to higher rates of exposure. Exposing society to SARS-CoV-2 without the unacceptable consequences of severe illness with public masking could lead to greater community-level immunity and slower spread as we await a vaccine. This theory of viral inoculum and mild or asymptomatic disease with SARS-CoV-2 in light of population-level masking has received little attention so this is one of the first perspectives to discuss the evidence supporting this theory.